Tricky trade-offs: challenges for the future of the EU ETS

On 15 September 2020 the College of Commissions of the European Union (EU)预计将宣布加强欧盟的2030年脱碳目标– potentially to as much as 55% emission cuts relative to 1990.

这一变化可能会迫使欧盟排放交易计划（ETS）重新设计，从而导致欧洲能源市场的广泛影响。

在这一关键宣布之前，Afry已经准备了一份白皮书，探索了什么设计挑战，可能的解决方案，以及它们如何影响ETS下的公司。公司和监管机构的主要问题将包括：

• Should the scope of activities covered by the ETS be expanded and, if so, how? How the EU will do this will have the most direct impact on the future carbon prices. Integrating new demand into the European carbon market has traditionally involved the expansion of supply as well – but questions remain about what volume of allowances to issue, or even if they should be issued at all.

• Will the Market Stability Reserve still be required in its present form to address concerns over the strength of carbon price signals?创造了这种机制，以遏制2013 - 8年度碳价格抑郁的供过于求。然而，目前尚不清楚，在更雄心勃勃的ETS中，这是最担心的问题，许多人更关心未来的价格将升级。

• 欧洲是否需要边境调整机制来保护其行业的竞争力？So far European industry has been protected against competition from importers not exposed to the carbon price through the allocation of free allowances. However, under a tighter cap not all industries can expect to receive the same level of protection as before. Can we expect an alternative mechanism to function better, while also not fundamentally affecting the supply-demand in the carbon market?

这些区域中的每一个的决策都可以导致对未来的eRs设计和影响非常不同。我们的白皮书提供了四种可能的未来ETS设计：现状，间接连接，谨慎改革和量子飞跃。这些不同的因子与当前形式的ETS转化的程度不同，并且对碳价格的影响非常不同，脱碳激励措施和竞争力。

As we show in the table below, we assess that, all other things being equal, radical design revisions are more likely to deliver uniform progress across all sectors towards the EU’s wider decarbonisation objectives. However, bold changes are difficult to implement, so regulators and market participants must engage with each other urgently to deliver robust solutions that will be acceptable to all.

ETS一直在欧盟的能量和气候政策的中心。如何支持未来增强的脱碳野心仍然不确定。我们的白皮书突出了任何重新设计的复杂性，以及欧洲行业大部分地区的广泛影响。有关具体问题和建模请求，请联系作者。

Notes:

• The debate around how to weave these issues into a more ambitious EU ETS is likely to last at least three more years. The decision by the EU’s College of Commissioners will be accompanied by the launch of the impact assessment for raising the 2030 climate target. This document will help inform the debate that will commence in the European Parliament and the Council once the Commission produces its formal Proposal to reform the ETS in the summer of 2021. This inter-institutional debate will likely last two years, during which period stakeholders will be able to inform their decision-makers how effects will emerge in European energy market and beyond as a result of the various possible permutations. We foresee that the resulting political compromise will be implemented from 2024 onward.

• This White Paper builds on AFRY in-house expertise in carbon and commodity markets extending back for more than 15 years. Our team has been working on projections for the European carbon market since 2005. These have been integrated since 2007 into our Energy Market Quarterly Analysis, which contain consolidated scenario-based analysis of electricity and natural gas markets. Further work by AFRY on the EU ETS includes:
  • 碳价格的关键驱动因素- 前方网络研讨会，2020;
  • 北欧和波罗的海能源市场欧盟ETS的区域碳价格楼- 芬兰首相办事处，2019年;
  • Evaluation of Cost Effectiveness of Emission Reduction Measures- 芬兰首相办事处，2019年;
  • “得到Brexit完成”：Brexit对欧盟ETS碳价格的影响- Afry Insight，2019;
  • EU ETS Policy Coherence Mechanism– Fortum, Vattenfall, Statkraft, 2017;
  • 芬兰排放交易指令续约的影响评价– Finnish Prime Minister’s Office, 2017;
  • Impact of the EU 2030 climate package on European power markets- 挪威石油和能源部，2014年;和
  • Assessment of the Allowance Supply Adjustment Mechanism– Fortum, 2013.